Ivan the Terrible

[Dimitri-2000X-Tampa]

As if it weren't bad enough being struck twice in a month, now we're trying to shorten our cycle to weekly natural disasters in Florida. And to think, a bit over a week ago, they were saying stuff like "Florida hadn't been hit by two major hurricanes in the same season since 1950." Its no fun setting hurricane records.

[richandlori]

Hold On Dimitri!

You think these Huricanes are bad, just wait until this Nov when all the news media decends on Florida to have a front row seat for the 2004 election debacle.

Hopefully we won't have a 2000 replay.....(it wasn't pretty no mater what candidate you were for)

[Jeff S]

And to think, a bit over a week ago, they were saying stuff like "Florida hadn't been hit by two major hurricanes in the same season since 1950."

They shouldn't have said that. They said not even God himself could sink the Titanic. Hope this one misses you guys. My brother lives on Pine Island near Punta Gorda- he was lucky during Charley.

Jeff S

[TampaMac]

Ivan is going to be a bad one. Present track would roll the strong side up the whole west coast of Florida South of Ft Myers. South of Ft Myers 6-12 feet of surge. North of Ft Myers surge would be less but still bad.

Of course the track prediction is ridiculously inaccurate. If it goes a bit more to the West it can be worse.

I'm 6.5 feet above sea level. If the storm stays over the Gulf and preserves it's strength then Tampa area could take a bad hit.

The best case would be the storm going right up the center of the state. It will thus lose power and go through the unpopulated inland of Florida. On the other hand the interior of Florida is heavily built up with trailer homes.

Go to http://weather.gov/ for track updates.

Good Luck to all!

- I plan on taking new photos of the house for insurance purposes today. Either another wind event or total destruction. We will see.

[Don B]

A coworker had the track of the storm posted on the wall. I got looking at it and could not help but see a face in it. The track looked like the outline of a head with Florida the nose and eye sockets to left and right of the nose. Than directly below was Cuba adding the mouth in a frown. I guess it is the face of Ivan the Terrible.

Yes- I need to get my eyes checked !!

-Don B

[TampaMac]

I don't know about that....but

The latest track shows a worse case deal. It is staying over the Gulf to perserve power while whipping up the entire West Coast of Florida.

This could be the most expensive hurricane ever.

Hope the National Weather Service is completely wrong as usual.

[Idle Time]

Hmmmmm...I live in central Florida and it has too much population to suit me...we're NE of Orlando. Charley hit us head on, Francis finished cleaning up...hope Ivan has plans to go west. I finished cleaning up the inside of the boat...the fire dept stopped today to warn us about flooding...and that doesnt count Ivan..we may have to move out of the motorhome into the boat. Probably the closest I'll get to cruising this year.

[ESPERANZA]

We're all keeping good thoughts of you folks in Florida and the Southeast. I hope Ivan turns or looses power soon. I saw an awful lot of nice boats trashed on the news after the last one. This leads me to ask just how well does the 26X hold up on a trailer in high cross winds?
Here in South Dakota it's not at all uncomon to see 60 to 80 mph winds for 6 to 8 hours when a cold front passes through in any season...

Dik...

[TampaMac]

Charley hit us head on

If Ivan takes an East track it will only be a tropical storm by the time it hits populated areas in the Orlando area. It has to travel North across the whole of Florida for 250 miles first.

The guy in North Dakota is right. 80 mph of wind is no big deal. There are two things in most hurricanes that destroy. That is tornadoes, which mostly dwell in the right quadrant within a 10 to 15 miles of the eyewall. And Storm surge, which is caused by onshore winds. The wind for a cat one or cat two storm just ain't a big deal unless you are in a mobile home with no foundation.

No, you didn't get hit by Charley dead on. The only people who got hit by charley dead on were on the coast near Sanibel Island. You got hit by a less than 100 mph wind event. Not to discount having your power knocked out, roads flooded, etc. It is just that it ain't the same. My daughter lives in Winter Park, I guess near you, she lost power and had to do without AC for 5 days. No fun but not the same thing.

On the coast we will have the storm surge. On the track that the Weather Service is predicting we can expect significant surge along the whole West Coast. I figure on having 6 feet of water in my living room come Tuesday.

Back to the 80 mph winds. Wind energy increases with the square of the velocity. Lets see you have say a 100 mph hurricane. Square 100 and you have a energy figure of 10,000. Then compare to a 150 mph hurricane and you have an energy figure of 22,500. So whereas we've increased windspeed by 50% we have more than doubled energy. To compare a 80 mph storm it only has a figure of 6400.

So the 80 mph winds in North Dakota in the winter are about 64% as strong as Charley when it hit Orlando or only 30% as strong as Charley was when it hit the coast. And when some structures are straining in North Dakota they would have been razed from the earth under a full Strength Charley.

Now Ivan has hit up to 160 mph.... that is 400% as strong as North Dakota winter winds.

[TampaMac]

Ivan just hit Jamica as a CAT 5. 23 foot waves, 155 mph winds.

Cuba is next, then the Keys and all of the west coast of Florida.

[Dimitri-2000X-Tampa]

Don't give up yet. The hurricane deflected West and the eye seems to be missing Jamaica. Due to the deflection, the track has been moved a bit West and is still to the right of the general guidance.

These forecasters are the best we have, but they still can not predict exactly what will happen. Not meaning to say that you don't have to get ready for the worst, but too many people take these long range forecasts as gospel when in fact the forecasters keep saying that they have a fairly large degree of error when it is still far out. With a 72h forecast, I believe their track forecasts have an average of about 300 nm of error which can be the difference between catastrophe and a light breeze.

[TampaMac]

Yes, I completely agree with you about the lack of accuracy.

The latest forecast is pretty far West. If you take the wind plot from that forecast I'm looking at like 50 mph winds, nothing... a joke.

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_bands2.asp

Even in this case surge and tides could cause some flooding, enough to have ocean water in the house.

The thing is that if you look at the model tracks which they base the forecasts on three of them go through my front door, and two others are close enough to cause trouble.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?9

Charley was somewhat the same. The forecast was for Tampa Bay, then Kazaam it turned right and hit Sanibel/Punta Gorda.

In any case my dire perdictions about it tearing up the whole West Coast seem somewhat of a worse case deal, and very unlikely at this point.

Lastly my friend you are correct about it being too early to perdict anything. The accuracy of forecasts is so bad as you logically should not evacuate until about 12-24 hours prior to the hit.

I have to work in Atlanta Tuesday morning. So I will probably fly out Sunday night.

[Dimitri-2000X-Tampa]

It would be nice to be able to delay an evacuation decision until 12 hours before the storm hits, the problem is that if everyone did that, there would be a massive traffic jam and a good possibility that you are riding out a major hurricane in your car. So, the way I look at it, let those very nervous types leave now...3-4 days before the storm, it clears out the escape routes for the rest of us later.

I'm in the same boat as you TampaMac, my house is only at 7.9 feet above sea level but I also live on a long North/South canal at the very Northern part of Tampa Bay, so I am perhaps more succeptable to the SW wind that piles the water into the bay than someone living on the south end of the bay. With Hurricane Frances, the south side of my yard had a lot of storm debris and fire ants pushed into it. Luckily, the chain link fence caught the bigger pieces.

We have relatives about 20 miles inland (Lutz), friends in Orlando, and another relative in Jacksonville. The big decision is how far away to evacuate....and it is a very tough decision. With Charlie, we went to Lutz and made the right decision in hindsight, seeing as the hurricane went over Orlando instead. We can take backroads to Lutz so I don't worry too much about traffic jams...even at the last minute. With Frances, we stayed in our house which was the right decision since the Lutz house lost power for 3 days. Now, the decision has to be made about Ivan. Things are a lot tricker with 4 kids too...if it were just my wife and I, we might take a bit more risk since we have a 2 story house, lots of tools, supplies, etc. The big thing we lack is a generator and that would be the only civilized way to stay in a powerless house in Florida during September.

I think there is a part of human nature that wants to be in control of your environment no matter how bad it gets. Its a very sickening feeling having to leave your house and wondering what it will look like when you return.

Anyway, I'm still not too sure what to do with the Mac. I'll probably end up leaving it tied to its trailer, rudders off, ballast full, and the trailer tied to some trees. Although it would be nice to tow it a couple hundred miles away, it could jeopardize our evacuation if the tow vehicle (a minivan) could not handle it, or burned more gas than was available. Best to load as many photo albums, food, water, etc. into the vehicle which will make it quite heavy. The boat is insured and is in a pretty well protected area...it can be replaced if need be...and I have this feeling that it could take winds up to 100 mph without too much problem.

Well, back to work now...

[TampaMac]

I agree with everything you said.

My 12 deal is not based on running to the East Coast, just like you are thinking about to a sturdy house on high ground.

Anyone on high ground with a cinder block house should just plain remain at home. Running might put you back in the path of the storm as per Tampa people running to Orlando in Charley. And more people die in car accidents and whatnot in evacuations then the storm.

So far the track of Ivan is drifting West. I'm not convinced yet though.

The other two storms didn't amount to much. This one is hitting 167 mph and is looking to still be 132 mph when it get up near Tampa. This is a bad one.

I wonder what kind of storm surge can be expected in the Tampa area with the present track putting it in Port St. Joe.

Of course I'm not convinced about it going that far West.

I raised my boat up on the lift real high and had ballast put in. Not sure how smart that is but that is what I did. The water has to be really high, maybe 8 feet above high tide to hit it. Putting it higher exposes it to the wind. We will see. Or maybe not if it really does go west.

[Dimitri-2000X-Tampa]

Yes, I'm a bit skeptical myself and will not feel comfortable until it is north of the 28th parallel. With Charley, we saw exactly what a nice low pressure area digging down can do to a hurricane in the Eastern Gulf...and that sort of event could still send Ivan into Tampa. It is certainly looking pretty deadly at the moment (one of the lowest pressures ever) and heading straight for Grand Caymen.

I agree with what you are saying for anything up to a cat2. But once it becomes a major hurricane, you are still taking a risk in any house, and especially one that does not have all windows covered properly. Frankly, its just not something that I want my family to experience. If you talk to anyone who decided to ride out a major hurricane (most recently in Port Charlotte), every single one of them will tell you that they would never do it again.

If it stays 130 miles off the coast like currently forecast, I think surge is back into the 2-3 foot category, but IMO, a major hurricane even 50 miles off shore could still be close enough to flood the house.