eric3a wrote: but the last 30 years don't fill me full of confidence.
Nor should it.....all you have to do it look around and actually "see" and it's hard not to be discouraged. But this is where it is valuable to learn from History. Every generation thinks it is worse today than in the "good old days" but every generation has also had an increased standard of living. I guess the question is..will history continue or have we worn out the cycles?
Catigale wrote:Pricing on solar panels will fall due to manufacturing technology advances...I would not buy at todays prices to secure a deal.
Would you buy at today's prices or wait because significant advances in technology are imminent, say within the next year? A "crystal ball" question, but maybe someone has a working knowledge of the timeliness of this issue.
Advances have happened in solar tech, but the trickle down to the common consumer has obstacles. One is that some of the best and latest only gets distributed to specific government uses so they can have a leg up on others regardless of expense; think Mars rovers and orbiters. Two, because it is very expensive to produce by hand and mass manufactuiring hasn't been figured out yet. Spray on solar panels have been made. Very thin film that can be glued on have been made. Imagine coating the whole surface of your car or boat with a pv. But they are of low efficiency; 4 -5%.
Very high efficiency of 25 or more % have been made in the labs, but problems of mass production haven't yet been figured out, or in some cases I suspect, large inventories of old stuff has to be sold first and factories retooled before "new" stuff is introduced. Watch for even more mergers of small companies with large ones. Like other businesses, the biggies will buying any small innovative potential market shakers to avoid the competition until they can retool themselves. The supply of panels is dependent on the supply of high quality silicon in some cases too. The same resource the IT industry wants to keep busy.
And keep in mind, that some panels sold now are not the best efficiency available on the common market, and they are not warranted to last as long or be as stable in output under normal weather conditions as others.
I wouldnd't wait to buy based on potential price spreads or possible new developments. And the need to reduce pollution is now. If you have a need and can use it now, do it now. I've used a 12% efficient Unisolar thin film panel for over 10 years now, and the 15% efficient Kyocera 120 watt multicrystaline panels for four years. I'm delighted with their performance. The Kyoceras have over 20 years left on their warranty. Certainly as long as I will need them. I have two more Kyoceras on order for the arch on my X.
Seems good logic to me. Ya gotta pay more to board the train at an earlier station.
But then too, that means you're riding ... not walking ... to the next station.
Solar Panels,like anything else in the marketplace,will make significant technological gains as the demand ramps up,and the competetive fray begins. And with the competitors clamoring for their share of the pie,the price strategy will bring cheaper prices for the better products.
Anybody remember $600,2 megapixel cameras?
There will never be the perfect time to buy,because technology,like time,marches on,and the next "best thing" will always be announced a week after your purchase!
