What constitutes a Bahamas Weather Window?

[NiceAft]

Never been on the ocean and the gulfstream thing worries me a lot.

Don’t make your trip your first experience with a Mac on the ocean.

I have never made the Bahama’s trip, but I have had my on the ocean, off the coast of Atlantic City. Swells make it much different than lake sailing. I suggest that next summer you make use of your trailer and take your Mac out on the ocean for a day. Mac’s bob like a cork in swells. Make this a part of your preparation.

[OverEasy]

Hi StarScream!

In your “dry-run” were you able to view/track the weather and sea state conditions along the proposed route matched to the anticipated rate of travel?

Static conditions at only a single point in time may change over the anticipated travel time.
Wondering if you might have been able to “see” what a “good” window at the start of the proposed trip may have evolved to over 10 to 15 hours travel time and location change.

Personally I’ve started out with what looked like a great weather forecast projection only to find it changed with time and distance both as a ‘skipper’ and as a ‘Pilot’. In the past using the meteorological reports I’ve done an exercise where I’ve tried to look at forecasts for a trip and route. Then based on the forecast that would have been available theoretically pulled the trigger on the proposed trip and incrementally walked the scenario forward based upon the vessel capabilities and route to “see” what might have been occurring as the trip progressed. Sort of like a game to see if I’d understood enough about what a forecast could/couldn’t tell me (like real life) and what the subsequent realities were. It helped me understand how dynamic systems work and the limitations of forecasting. It helped to understand how to look for weather, wind, tides and currents data available preceding can help improve the odds of a trip meeting expectations… both good and bad at various points.

Arriving at a narrow harbor entrance in a small vessel when the tide is running ‘in’ is very different than when it is running ‘out’.
I’ve deliberately gone to a nice restaurant overlooking where the Great Basin drains/fills at Portsmouth NH and spent a “loonnngggg” lunch just to see the realities of what one might experience. It was eye opening when one sees an ocean going tug with an experienced crew and thousands of horse power struggle against and with the tide. Similarly, during the summer season, I’ve seen ‘hoity-toity’ power boats of similar length/displacement to our Mac but with much more power unable to make headway against the tidal current drifting backwards or getting caught in the whorls and eddies that exist. Impressive, humorous and edifying.

The open ocean can be a very different place…as NiceAft pointed out. Even in our own small forays out into the Atlantic to the last Bouy of the Beaufort River ICW route can have a significant change in conditions depending on the previous days/weeks weather, wind, tides and currents. As has been said “Timing is Everything”.

The interaction of sea swell periodic interaction with wave periodic rate and direction (which are often not in the same direction) can make for an interesting experience and can result in multi directional surfing which can range from annoying to downright hazardous within the space of moments…. When one is caught on the front of a wave slope and being pushed into a swell it’s not a pleasant experience (one also wonders if the forward hatch was secured tightly enough) when water crashes down on the foredeck as the bow plunges into the water….it also pretty much stops one’s forward momentum …. and that’s what can happen on nice sunny sorta calm days. Corkscrewing around like in a unbalanced washing machine can be a problem at multiple levels… we’ve had things from under the dinette wander out and up on to the bow berth and back into the aft berth areas etc…

One can also incur fuel/air issues as fuel tank levels drop which is one of the advantages of a fuel filter/separator system between tanks and engine. It act as sort of a ‘buffer’ to help keep the engine supplied with fuel. Having your primer bulb close at hand, preferably not down around one’s ankles, is also beneficial when having to deal with the potentially erratic motion conditions.

From what little I’ve looked into about transitioning from Florida to the Bahamas it seems that there are regular arrangements made by groups of vessels to transit as a group (as sorta mutual support groups) in that there is safety in numbers should something go awry. Remember that VHF radio is really only capable of line-of-sight communications….so calling on the radio for help isn’t all that much of an option if you’re on your own. Same with cell phones unless you have one of those nifty sat-phones. If/when we get into open ocean cruising/crossing we’re looking at a wearable satellite EPIR with track and text capability. They’re not cheap but not prohibitively expensive either and the service subscription isn’t too bad either. Local scuttlebutt down south at the marina has it that there are possibly rental units available for use so one might not have to purchase your own. I believe there is also a trip registry with the US Coast Guard that should be utilized so that if one is overdue someone can start looking……

I figure you’ve already looked into whatever safety/survival kit you’d need for open ocean. Having spent several hours in the water upon occasion (younger years) I can tell you that while 80F water sounds nice it still gets cold as it sucks away your 98.6F body heat. I suppose that’s why having some sort of auxiliary skiff might be part of the various recommended equipment lists for open ocean work.

Keep us posted on your progress and preparations! I too am envious!

Best Regards,
Over Easy

[Be Free]

OverEasy's comment re: VHF line of site got me thinking about your MMSI. Did you remember get a "real" MMSI that can be used outside the US and an FCC station license for your VHF?

[Starscream]

OverEasy's comment re: VHF line of site got me thinking about your MMSI. Did you remember get a "real" MMSI that can be used outside the US and an FCC station license for your VHF?

Yes, I have a ship's radio station licence, call sign, and MMSI registered with transport Canada, along with a federal registration certificate and official number. The ship's radio station licence actually a requirement to operate in US waters, which we regularly do. My AIS transmitter and EPIRB are also programmed with my MMSI.

But it's actually a good thing you asked, thank you for that, as it made me check my documentation and I notice that I need to update the ship's radio station licence "additional equipment" section to include my AIS.

[Chinook]

I haven't been on the forum for quite a while and so haven't commented on this thread till now. I do have a few comments on Gulf Stream crossings, based on my 3 times out to the Bahamas. First of all, ocean swell is vastly different from the chop experienced on inland and protected waters. You can be out in 6 foot seas and be perfectly ok, provided that the period is long enough. Three foot seas with 5 second period is much rougher and more hazardous than 6 foot swell and 9 or 10 second period on the ocean. Once you get used to the up and down, it can actually be enjoyable. If it's a following sea you do need to stay on top of your steering, because you'll really accelerate when a sea passes you by and you start to surf down its face. On the ocean you'll need to pay attention to both the prevailing swell, and its period, as well as the wind chop, which is a product of current wind conditions. Large ocean swells can result from stormy conditions very far away from you, or from a weather system which has already clocked through. On one return trip we got pinned down by north winds at West End on Grand Bahama, and waited a week for improving weather. The wind eventually was forecast to clock to the east and we took off. We had east winds of about 10 knots and 6 foot seas from the previous week's winds, but the conditions were decent. For an easterly trip out to Bimini from Angelfish, an ideal forecast would be SE to South, not more than 15 knots, and clocking. I'd be cautious about West if there's a chance of the wind clocking into NW or N during the crossing.

Regarding running at faster speed, I tried that the first time we went, running from West Palm Beach to West End. I figured that the quicker the crossing the better. I initially ran my 50 at full throttle, ballasted, but in getting a bit of southing could only make about 8 knots. I burned through half of my gas after going only 25 miles. After switching tanks I slowed to around 2500 rpm and still was going better than 5 knots, much more economically. Thing to remember is that on a trip to the Bahamas you'll be much more heavily loaded than usual, and that will significantly cut into your fuel economy. Run at hull speed, sit back and enjoy it, and troll a feather jig for that mahi mahi.

One final comment, regarding departure from Angelfish Cut. You'll anchor out there on the night before your crossing. There are no services anywhere near there. You'll want to stay at a dock or anchorage within a fairly short run of Angelfish, somewhere with water and groceries. We hung out at Tavenier, which worked out well for us. You'll monitor weather from there, looking for a weather window 2 days out. That will allow you to take a day over to Angelfish, anchor overnight, and then take off at 2 or 3 am for your crossing. Also, what I did, on the afternoon before, was run out from Angelfish for 3 or 4 miles before turning around and returning to the Angelfish anchorage. That gave me a breadcrumb track on my Garmin, which made navigating in the dark much easier. It's really hard to spot the navigational markers in the dark, and it's surprisingly easy to get off course and run up on a sand bar or rockpile.

[Be Free]

All VERY good recommendations from Chinook!

I'd add that taking a "shakedown cruise" before heading for the Bahamas would be a good idea. Get the boat set up as close to "Bahamas ready" as you can and then take it out for a couple of days with your full crew. See how things work (or don't work) in real life. It's a lot easier to fix stuff close to home than 30 miles offshore.

[Ixneigh]

Hi. The ideal weather for crossing is now.
It’s flat calm right now in key largo. Last night, night before.
The fronts are stalling out now. Spring trades haven’t kicked in. Run her over under power at around five knots. Leaving from molasses reef at maybe 5 AM. Should get to gun key late afternoon. Gun key is a good entrance onto the banks and a sheltered harbor. It can be navigated in poor light, and poor ( but not horrible) conditions. Just drive her east towards the west end of the key, and right before you hit it, turn right and cruise along the shore and around behind it. April may and June are the best months in my opinion. Note, my experience is mostly in the near out islands.

Ix

[Starscream]

Hi. The ideal weather for crossing is now.
It’s flat calm right now in key largo. Last night, night before.
The fronts are stalling out now. Spring trades haven’t kicked in. Run her over under power at around five knots. Leaving from molasses reef at maybe 5 AM. Should get to gun key late afternoon. Gun key is a good entrance onto the banks and a sheltered harbor. It can be navigated in poor light, and poor ( but not horrible) conditions. Just drive her east towards the west end of the key, and right before you hit it, turn right and cruise along the shore and around behind it. April may and June are the best months in my opinion. Note, my experience is mostly in the near out islands.

Ix

Hi Ix, I was hoping you'd chime in

I'm planning to be in the keys in December of this year, and I know enough to not try to cross in northerly winds. I guess my question is... what constitutes "northerly"? Is 8kn from ENE OK? Everything I find on the net says don't cross if there's any north component, so ENE would produce bad conditions? What if it's calm and an ENE wind starts to blow...how long before the stream is a boiling mess of waves?

[Be Free]

Generally speaking, if there is any northern component to the wind you will have a less comfortable crossing.

[Starscream]

Generally speaking, if there is any northern component to the wind you will have a less comfortable crossing.

Makes sense. We can take a fair beating on Bear Hunt, and have done 45 degree - 45 degree rolls, buried the nose with waves up over the cabin top, rain and wind. On lakes. Where I can swim to safety if I need to. And shelter is just around that point over there.

I'm tyring to get some understanding of how long it takes for waves to kick up and lay back again, and understand what constitutes a window on the forecast chart. Is 12h with no northerly component enough to lay the waves back down? Should I wait a whole day with no North component? Or is a 15 or 20 degrees of North OK for a crew willing to challenge themselves on a 26X?

[pitchpolehobie]

I dont know but I bookmarked these guys and would reach out if i was going to do that crossing.
https://www.mwxc.com/

Https://www.mwxc.com/chris_parker.php

I think there is an online listing to group up w ppl :-- check facebook i believe.

Also i dont think i answered your question but Im curious also.

[Be Free]

Generally speaking, if there is any northern component to the wind you will have a less comfortable crossing.

Makes sense. We can take a fair beating on Bear Hunt, and have done 45 degree - 45 degree rolls, buried the nose with waves up over the cabin top, rain and wind. On lakes. Where I can swim to safety if I need to. And shelter is just around that point over there.

I'm tyring to get some understanding of how long it takes for waves to kick up and lay back again, and understand what constitutes a window on the forecast chart. Is 12h with no northerly component enough to lay the waves back down? Should I wait a whole day with no North component? Or is a 15 or 20 degrees of North OK for a crew willing to challenge themselves on a 26X?

If you choose to go out in "bad" conditions crossing to the Bahamas you should expect to have deal with quartering waves trying to turn you and cold spray and sometimes sheets of water coming over the bow and (in my experience) landing right on the helm seat. Depending on the size of the waves you may be surfing down the back sides. It's uncomfortable, tiring, and sometimes a little scary. It sounds like you may have experienced something similar in the past.

You are correct in your observation that there is a big difference between doing this on a lake where you can (relatively) quickly move out of those conditions and back into a (more) sheltered area. It is not so much a difference in kind as it is a difference in degree. A Bahamas crossing is going to take around 12 hours (or more) in most cases. If you run into "bad" conditions your choices are to push through or to turn back. Depending on where you make the call that could mean another 6 hours (or more) before you get relief.

That's the scary part. The good news is that there is absolutely no reason for you to ever take your boat out into those conditions or any other conditions that you are not absolutely comfortable with. We do this for fun. We don't ever have to leave the dock!

The Keys are a wonderful place to spend a couple of weeks in December. Have a contingency plan ready. If the weather does not cooperate, if there is any doubt in your mind regarding the safety or advisability of making the crossing then switch plans and explore the Keys. Don't push it. The Bahamas are beautiful and I've enjoyed every trip I've taken there but I can tell you with absolute certainty that there is nothing over there worth risking your life or health for. Don't forget: you need two acceptable weather windows. If you can't wait as long as necessary for a safe window to return then it might not be a good idea to go. Hard experience has taught me that the most dangerous thing to keep on a sailboat is a schedule.

Stepping down from my soapbox now and back to your questions.

It takes longer for the waves to lay down than it does for them to kick up. The higher they are kicked up the longer they take to settle. You don't have to wait for perfect conditions to cross and you don't have to wait for all "bad" conditions to settle before you start. A day (or even half day) may be enough to get seas back into a state you are willing to tackle.

NOAA Weather Radio will give you the offshore conditions but the great thing is that you can see what you are getting into long before you experience it. If the NOAA weather forecasts sound promising then head out but keep an eye on the horizon. If it looks like a herd of elephants is marching across it you may want to begin to consider your alternate plan. Those "elephants" are the wind-against-current waves that you've been worried about. You can see a 12 foot wave on the horizon about 6 nautical miles away standing in the cockpit. That's probably a good hour. When you actually get into the stream you always have the option of turning around if you are not comfortable with what you are going through and you know that there is "good" water not far behind you.

The chart on this site is a little hard to read but there is a wealth of information packed into it. I recommend it to any who are planning a Gulf Stream crossing from Florida.

https://www.weather.gov/mlb/gulfstream_ ... %20higher.

From the chart you can see that there's not much difference between a wind directly out of the north and one that is 10 or 15 degrees either way. You can also see that even though there is a drastic difference between a 10 knot wind from the north and one from the south. Under 10 knots you may be able to cross regardless of wind direction if you have everything stowed and you are willing to work at it a bit.

Crossing to the Bahamas is not climbing Mt Everest. It is not (and should not be) trivial but it's imminently doable. A well maintained Macgregor and capable crew should have nothing to worry about. Be safe. Be smart. Be flexible.

[NiceAft]

Well written Bill.

Knowledgeable, succinct information. There should be a way to place this in resources as a resource for Bahama crossings.

I particularly like the sentence about “ a herd of elephants.”

[Be Free]

Well written Bill.

Knowledgeable, succinct information. There should be a way to place this in resources as a resource for Bahama crossings.

I particularly like the sentence about “ a herd of elephants.”

I wish I could give credit to the person who first said it to me. Growing up in Florida I've spent more than a little time sitting on the shore and staring at the horizon. I can still remember my amazement when I realized that the motion I was seeing out there was very large waves. Years later, when someone described them as "looking like a herd of elephants" the phrase just stuck.

The point I was trying to get across was that a Bahamas crossing is not to be taken lightly, particularly in the winter, but it is not as dangerous or complicated as some make it out to be. Planning, preparation, and patience in equal parts are the key to a safe trip.

We are all used to making adjustments based on changing weather conditions. What many don't realize is that conditions in the Gulf Stream are so strikingly local. You can see the waves change when you get there. Regardless of what NOAA promised you, if you don't like what you see you have the option to just turn around and come back out.

It reminds me of what an ex military pilot told me once. We had just flown through some clouds and he pointed out a large flat topped cloud a long way off. He said that his instructor had told him that there was no reason in peacetime to ever fly into one. As recreational sailors we should have the same attitude towards a questionable Gulf Stream crossing. To paraphrase Demosthenes, "He who looks and sails away, lives to cross another day".

[dlandersson]

I was out on Lake Michigan, marveling at myself, when I noticed a funnel beginning out by Chicago. I was never so happy as that day that I could drp my sail and use my OB to scoot back in the the marina. CG radio started putting out warnings, etc.

To paraphrase Demosthenes, "He who looks and sails away, lives to cross another day".