Ivan is pretty unlikely to hit here at this point but my prayers are with those in the Pensacola to Gulfport area. I live there for years when I was a flight instructor for the Navy and know the area well.
This is a real bad one so good luck to all.
Ivan the Terrible
-
TampaMac
- Engineer
- Posts: 142
- Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2004 9:03 am
- Location: Port Richey FL 2002-26X Merc 60 4stroke
Well, it hit Pensacola. 130 mph at landfall. The right side of the eyewall seems to have been near the Navy Air Station. I suspect that Pensacola Beach (where by chance no reporters seem to be) took the brunt of the storm.
The Interstate 10 Bridge over Escambia Bay was torn to pieces like it got hit by an earthquake. I am very familar with this bridge. I used to fish underneath it back in the day when I was in the military there.
It is a heavy duty bridge built to Interstate standards out of reinforced concrete. If the Bridge took that kind of damage one wonders what happened in to the waterfront housing around the bay. Total Destruction?
Does anyone know about Storm surge? The chart showed something over 6 foot of surge in Pensacola - however it must have been much worse then that in Escambia Bay.
I've been all over that bay, it is pretty shallow. Shallow water must be more prone to building storm surge.
The second deadliest hurricane to hit the US hit Florida around Palm Beach back in 1928. The Cat 4 storm picked up the very broad and shallow Lake Okachobee and hurled it to the West. Killed 2500 people living on the small farms located West of the lake (land developers of Swamp land in Florida fame covered up the true extent of the dead and only recently did the govt revise the figures to 2500).
Anyway, any of you out there know anything about such things?
Tampa Bay is much like Escambia Bay and I guess prone to the same sort of thing.
The Interstate 10 Bridge over Escambia Bay was torn to pieces like it got hit by an earthquake. I am very familar with this bridge. I used to fish underneath it back in the day when I was in the military there.
It is a heavy duty bridge built to Interstate standards out of reinforced concrete. If the Bridge took that kind of damage one wonders what happened in to the waterfront housing around the bay. Total Destruction?
Does anyone know about Storm surge? The chart showed something over 6 foot of surge in Pensacola - however it must have been much worse then that in Escambia Bay.
I've been all over that bay, it is pretty shallow. Shallow water must be more prone to building storm surge.
The second deadliest hurricane to hit the US hit Florida around Palm Beach back in 1928. The Cat 4 storm picked up the very broad and shallow Lake Okachobee and hurled it to the West. Killed 2500 people living on the small farms located West of the lake (land developers of Swamp land in Florida fame covered up the true extent of the dead and only recently did the govt revise the figures to 2500).
Anyway, any of you out there know anything about such things?
Tampa Bay is much like Escambia Bay and I guess prone to the same sort of thing.
-
Mark Prouty
- Admiral
- Posts: 1723
- Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2004 8:52 am
- Location: Madison, WI Former MacGregor 26X Owner
Louisiana Office of Emergency PreparednessLouisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness wrote:For a particular storm strength, surge will be highest where the ocean is shallow offshore. The danger is greatest where large numbers of people live near shallow oceans.
-
Sloop John B
- Captain
- Posts: 871
- Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 2:45 am
- Sailboat: MacGregor 26X
- Location: Florida 'Big Bend'. 02x Yamaha T50
I thought it was the concrete bridge over to Gulf Breeze that had a lane knocked out. If the 1-10 bridge is out, that's equivalent to every bridge over the Mississippi from New Orleans being out as far as commerce is concerned.
I crossed the thing four times this month. Tough bridge. It shouldn't have happened. However, this board is familiar with what wild heavy ass water can do.
The '28 Okeechobee storm killed countless African Americans who simply disappeared. History channel did a piece on it.
Ivan came through 210 miles west of me. Very strong winds, not too much rain. Russian roulette tornados in the immediate vicinity. Sparsely populated area. Worse than Bonnie, 20 miles to my east; and Frances, 50 miles to my east. Being in the cross hairs of a Cat 4,5 for several days was nerve wracking.
You don't want to be just to the east of these things. I was stationed in Pensacola when Frederick hit Mobile. What a mess. Closed the golf course for a week hauling off downed trees.
Most of the insurance now being written in Florida provides for a 2% deductible when damage is caused by a hurricane (>75mph). So, if your house is insured for 100K, you pick up the first 2K, instead of the normal $250.
I crossed the thing four times this month. Tough bridge. It shouldn't have happened. However, this board is familiar with what wild heavy ass water can do.
The '28 Okeechobee storm killed countless African Americans who simply disappeared. History channel did a piece on it.
Ivan came through 210 miles west of me. Very strong winds, not too much rain. Russian roulette tornados in the immediate vicinity. Sparsely populated area. Worse than Bonnie, 20 miles to my east; and Frances, 50 miles to my east. Being in the cross hairs of a Cat 4,5 for several days was nerve wracking.
You don't want to be just to the east of these things. I was stationed in Pensacola when Frederick hit Mobile. What a mess. Closed the golf course for a week hauling off downed trees.
Most of the insurance now being written in Florida provides for a 2% deductible when damage is caused by a hurricane (>75mph). So, if your house is insured for 100K, you pick up the first 2K, instead of the normal $250.
-
jklightner
- Engineer
- Posts: 142
- Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 1:49 pm
- Location: Tacoma, WA
We took the Whaler down to Pensacola this past weekend for a rendezvous at Pirate's Cove over near Orange Beach. Stayed in a cabin in the Oak Grove campground and launched from Sherman Cove, on the Navy base. The base started closing up Saturday, and moving their boats from the marina to a hanger, and we saw quite a few sailboats hiding up in Robert's Bayou by Pirate's Cove. We went out late Monday morning, and it was eerie! Every slip was empty. There were two larger powerboats tied off to trees on the south side of the cove just inside the cut. It was too choppy to go out through the pass, so we motored around by Fort McCrae, and found a mastless larger sailboad anchored there and unoccupied. Headed west in Big Lagoon and saw several sailboats and a trawler anchored and deserted on the south side of the lagoon. Quite a few boats bobbing around in marinas on the north side.
We had the water to ourselves, except for a couple of boats making a run for more sheltered water. All the VHF chatter was from commercial boats executing their hurricane plans. When we got back to the cabin, there was a note on the door that we had to evacuate, so we packed up and headed home up I-65. Glad we didn't wait 'til Tuesday morning to start driving. As it was, we saw more Florida tags heading north in that one trip than we have in all the ones before.
Given the center of the eye went over Gulf Shores, I'm afraid there's significant, and probably complete, damage in the area west of the Pensacola pass. There were still many dozens of privately owned boats in the fenced storage yards at Sherman Cove when we left, and I imagine they're all in piles now.
BTW, my ex-in-laws owned a lot with a mobile home on the east shore of Escambia Bay, just south of that I-10 bridge. It was damaged, and the dock washed away in a previous hurricane years ago. I'd never have imagined only a 130 mph hurricane doing any damage to that bridge!
--
Moe
We had the water to ourselves, except for a couple of boats making a run for more sheltered water. All the VHF chatter was from commercial boats executing their hurricane plans. When we got back to the cabin, there was a note on the door that we had to evacuate, so we packed up and headed home up I-65. Glad we didn't wait 'til Tuesday morning to start driving. As it was, we saw more Florida tags heading north in that one trip than we have in all the ones before.
Given the center of the eye went over Gulf Shores, I'm afraid there's significant, and probably complete, damage in the area west of the Pensacola pass. There were still many dozens of privately owned boats in the fenced storage yards at Sherman Cove when we left, and I imagine they're all in piles now.
BTW, my ex-in-laws owned a lot with a mobile home on the east shore of Escambia Bay, just south of that I-10 bridge. It was damaged, and the dock washed away in a previous hurricane years ago. I'd never have imagined only a 130 mph hurricane doing any damage to that bridge!
--
Moe
-
TampaMac
- Engineer
- Posts: 142
- Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2004 9:03 am
- Location: Port Richey FL 2002-26X Merc 60 4stroke
Thanks for the link! Lots of familar places destroyed.
I'm sick of the talking heads on TV who know nothing.
Last night Anderson Cooper of CNN was in Mobile. The storm missed Mobile. They were hit by the weak side. Yet he sure made it out like he was at ground zero doing his wind on his body routine.
Now he is in Gulf Shores where Ivan made a direct hit. Well the eye passed over there but that is not the direct hit.
The direct hit from a hurricane is on the east side of the eyewall. Why?
Ivan hit at 130 mph, but that is because it was moving forward at 15 mph - ie. 115 + 15 = 130. The actual rotational winds going counter-clockwise were about 115 mph. On the weak side it is just the opposite - you have to subtract the forward movement of the storm from the rotational wind speed and hence the weakside over in Mobile was only about 115 - 15 = 100 mph.
So over in Escambia Bay and Pensacola they got the full 130 while Gulf Shores who had the "direct hit" only got 115 and Mobile less than 100.
So to compare energy:
Mobile 100 squared = 10,000
Gulf Shores 115 squared = 13,225
Pensacola 130 squared = 16,900
So since wind energy increases with the square of the velocity that means that Pensacola got hit 69% harder than Mobile. No wonder the minimal damage in Mobile and the concrete freeway bridge in Pensacola being partially destroyed.
If the idiots in the press knew anything they'd be in the right place reporting today.
I'm sick of the talking heads on TV who know nothing.
Last night Anderson Cooper of CNN was in Mobile. The storm missed Mobile. They were hit by the weak side. Yet he sure made it out like he was at ground zero doing his wind on his body routine.
Now he is in Gulf Shores where Ivan made a direct hit. Well the eye passed over there but that is not the direct hit.
The direct hit from a hurricane is on the east side of the eyewall. Why?
Ivan hit at 130 mph, but that is because it was moving forward at 15 mph - ie. 115 + 15 = 130. The actual rotational winds going counter-clockwise were about 115 mph. On the weak side it is just the opposite - you have to subtract the forward movement of the storm from the rotational wind speed and hence the weakside over in Mobile was only about 115 - 15 = 100 mph.
So over in Escambia Bay and Pensacola they got the full 130 while Gulf Shores who had the "direct hit" only got 115 and Mobile less than 100.
So to compare energy:
Mobile 100 squared = 10,000
Gulf Shores 115 squared = 13,225
Pensacola 130 squared = 16,900
So since wind energy increases with the square of the velocity that means that Pensacola got hit 69% harder than Mobile. No wonder the minimal damage in Mobile and the concrete freeway bridge in Pensacola being partially destroyed.
If the idiots in the press knew anything they'd be in the right place reporting today.
-
Dimitri-2000X-Tampa
- Admiral
- Posts: 2043
- Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2004 5:36 am
- Sailboat: MacGregor 26X
- Location: Tampa, Florida 2000 Mercury BigFoot 50HP 4-Stroke on 26X hull# 3575.B000
Good explanation on wind forces, TampaMac. I think the reason they were in Mobile was because the forecast a few hours before landfall was for it to continue straight North and go just a bit West of Mobile which would have put the worst of it in Mobile Bay. By the time the cane jogged to the right 50 or so miles right before landfall, nobody could move around anymore. But I agree that much of the coverage is pretty ridiculous...especially these bright-eyed youngsters that are so excited about the destruction that they are about to witness...that is just such poor taste.
I saw that special about the Okachobee Hurricane, they said it could have been 10-12K people killed because of all the migrant workers that could have been there but were never accounted for. In a similar special, they also said it could have been 10-12K people killed in the Galveston Hurricane even though the official tally was around 8K. Of course, they did not have satellites back in those days so the main reason people don't get killed in those sorts of numbers now is because they evacuate. I suppose construction has gotten better too. Nowadays, there are more deaths inland I believe....and damn if most still don't seem to occur in trailer parks.
I was reading my old post on this thread about getting a 2-3 foot storm surge in Tampa if Ivan was 130 miles away...I guess I was probably way under seeing as we got about 1.9 feet of surge with it being 350 miles away. This was slightly less than we got for Opal back in 1995 when I first bought my house. It appears the movement of the storm has something to do with the storm surge too because we seem to get more surge with storms that are moving with an Eastward component (towards us) than ones with a Westward component (moving away from us).
Btw, I heard it was a 15 foot surge in Pensacola and Escambia Bay (where the I-10 bridge is). I tried to pull up the water station this morning, and it had broke at about midnight (a couple hours before landfall) when it reached 7 feet. It seemed to be the only station in the general area that had stopped reporting, but I suppose that could have been from the communication/power lines being broken too.
I saw that special about the Okachobee Hurricane, they said it could have been 10-12K people killed because of all the migrant workers that could have been there but were never accounted for. In a similar special, they also said it could have been 10-12K people killed in the Galveston Hurricane even though the official tally was around 8K. Of course, they did not have satellites back in those days so the main reason people don't get killed in those sorts of numbers now is because they evacuate. I suppose construction has gotten better too. Nowadays, there are more deaths inland I believe....and damn if most still don't seem to occur in trailer parks.
I was reading my old post on this thread about getting a 2-3 foot storm surge in Tampa if Ivan was 130 miles away...I guess I was probably way under seeing as we got about 1.9 feet of surge with it being 350 miles away. This was slightly less than we got for Opal back in 1995 when I first bought my house. It appears the movement of the storm has something to do with the storm surge too because we seem to get more surge with storms that are moving with an Eastward component (towards us) than ones with a Westward component (moving away from us).
Btw, I heard it was a 15 foot surge in Pensacola and Escambia Bay (where the I-10 bridge is). I tried to pull up the water station this morning, and it had broke at about midnight (a couple hours before landfall) when it reached 7 feet. It seemed to be the only station in the general area that had stopped reporting, but I suppose that could have been from the communication/power lines being broken too.
-
jklightner
- Engineer
- Posts: 142
- Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 1:49 pm
- Location: Tacoma, WA
If they knew anything, they would have better, higher paying jobsIf the idiots in the press knew anything they'd be in the right place reporting today.
I read where one bouy that records wave action ( I didn't know they did that) recorded waves of 25' and one of 50' I recall being young and foolish, riding around in a hurricane in a 6 by. Looks like a lot of folks are going to be shopping for new boats with an insurance check for the down payment. Here's hoping Jean misses or weakens. Enough is enough. Take care, and I hope all works out for ya all.
-
TampaMac
- Engineer
- Posts: 142
- Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2004 9:03 am
- Location: Port Richey FL 2002-26X Merc 60 4stroke
The National Press people, ie at CNN are paid pretty well. I expect people to do their jobs.
Here it is another day and they are still sitting in Gulf Shores rather than Pensacola. And reporting from Panama City? Panama City didn't get hit by nothing... not even worthy of coverage.
This press thing is a big thing. We fought a war in Somilia largely because the press had relatively easy access to the place and decided to cover the problems there. You see they had air service there and you could fly in hire some thugs for protection film staving children and be back in a clean safe hotel a few days later. Meanwhile next door in Sudan many more people were starving to death but that wasn't important because it was not on TV.
Anyway, I'm running on and way off topic. I've been trying to call a friend in Pensacola to see if she is OK to no avail.
Here it is another day and they are still sitting in Gulf Shores rather than Pensacola. And reporting from Panama City? Panama City didn't get hit by nothing... not even worthy of coverage.
This press thing is a big thing. We fought a war in Somilia largely because the press had relatively easy access to the place and decided to cover the problems there. You see they had air service there and you could fly in hire some thugs for protection film staving children and be back in a clean safe hotel a few days later. Meanwhile next door in Sudan many more people were starving to death but that wasn't important because it was not on TV.
Anyway, I'm running on and way off topic. I've been trying to call a friend in Pensacola to see if she is OK to no avail.
-
mgg4
- First Officer
- Posts: 205
- Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2004 2:01 pm
- Sailboat: MacGregor 26X
- Location: Oakley, CA 2002 26X / Suzuki DF-50
- Contact:
TampaMac,TampaMac wrote:I've been trying to call a friend in Pensacola to see if she is OK to no avail.
Call your local chapter of the American Red Cross. Ask them to do a "Health and Welfare" check. Normally this is done by family members, and I can't remember if friends and other non-relatives can request these; but it's worth a shot.
The Red Cross has communications methods outside normal channels, and can sometimes get the information in and out of the disaster area.
--Mark Galbraith
(Former Red Cross Disaster Response Team Member)